从经济增长与银行信贷交互作用的视角建立住宅价格波动理论模型,利用1999~2010年35个大中城市的异质面板经验解析了三者关联。结果发现:经济增长和银行信贷对住宅价格波动均有影响,但效果不同,取决于二者博弈,即实质在于调整经济增长和控制银行信贷的力度配合。在房价中等的城市中经济增长放缓对价格下降影响更大,在房价较高和较低的城市中限制信贷效应更明显。
This paper analyzes the relationship among house price, economic growth and bank credit using the panel data of 35 cities from 1999 to 2010. Results show that economic growth and bank credit both affect the house price,but the effect depends on their game. Economic growth slowdown has greater impact in cities that prices are middling, and credit limiting has more pronounced effect in cities that prices are higher or lower.