中文摘要：

运用数据包络分析方法,通过建立民俗旅游发展效率的投入产出指标,评价了2007—2015年北京市12个区民俗旅游的综合效率,得出北京市民俗旅游整体效率处于中等水平。通过曼奎斯特生产率指数法,测度了北京市民俗旅游发展的全要素生产率（TFP）,总体均值1.318〉1表明民俗旅游总体发展水平是提高的。通过对TFP的分解,发现技术进步在效率演进中的贡献稍大,同时规模效率对综合效率的贡献较大。进一步分析效率的演进,归纳出五种随时间演进的模式分别为：稳定式、斜峰式、渐退式、往复式和复杂式。对规模报酬与规模密度的进一步分析,发现北京市民俗旅游总体发展规模仍存在扩大的空间,需要针对北京市各区的民俗旅游发展规模数量做出适当调整。

英文摘要：

The comprehensive efficiency of folk tourism in 12 districts in Beijing from 2007 to 2015 was estimated through the establishment of input and output indicators of the development efficiency of folk tourism, and the overall efficiency of folk tourism in Beijing was at a moderate level. Through the Malmquist productivity index method, the total factor produc- tivity （TFP） of the development of folk tourism in Beijing is measured. The overall average of 1. 318 〉 1 indicated that the overall development level of folk tourism was improved. Through the decomposition of TFP, it was found that the technologi- cal progress was the most important factor in the development of Beijing＇s folk tourism. Meanwhile, the scale efficiency contributed more to the comprehensive efficiency. Further analysis of the evolution of efficiency, we summed up the five models with time evolution： stable, oblique-style, progressive, reciprocating and complex, and found that there is still expanding room for the overall development scale of Beijing folk tourism through further analysis of the scale payment and scale density, so as to need to make appropriate adjustment to the scale of the development of folk tourism in Beijing.