中文摘要：

在分析耕地保护外部性的基础上，预测了规划期间湖南省在保障粮食安全、经济发展和生态环境保护三大目标下的耕地需求量；根据现有耕地数量、规划期间可能增加量和减少量预测了耕地供给量；然后对耕地供需平衡进行了综合分析并确定了规划期间湖南省的耕地保有量：2010—2015年为353．17万hm2～375．67万hm2，2016—2023年为371．03万hm2～375．84万hm2。该预测结果可为湖南省土地利用总体规划确定耕地保有量目标提供参考依据。图1，表1，参15。

英文摘要：

Based on analysis of the externalities of farmland protection, the paper predicted the demand of cultivated land from the re- spect of food-safety, economic development and ecological protection, the supply of arable land after analyzing all factors which proba- bly made the supply of farmland increase or decrease in Hunan province, then comprehensively analyzed supply-demand balance of ara- ble land. At last the paper predicted the ensuring supplies of arable land of Hunan province during the planning are 3 531 700 - 3 756 700 hm2 for 2010 to 2015 and 3 710 300 - 3 758 400 hm2 for 2016 to 2023. These will provide important support to the land use planning in Hu＇nan province.