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广西农业气象灾害特征分析及其对农业生产的影响

ISSN号：2095-4050
期刊名称：《农学学报》
时间：0
分类：S166[农业科学—农业气象学;农业科学—农业基础科学]
作者机构：[1]江西农业大学园林与艺术学院,南昌330045, [2]江西农业大学生态科学研究中心,南昌330045, [3]教育部/江西省作物生理生态与遗传育种重点实验室,南昌330045, [4]中国科学院南京土壤研究所,南京210008
相关基金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“广西红壤肥力与生态功能协同演变机制与调控”（批准号：U1033004）资助.

关键词：农业气象灾害, 农业生产, 灰色关联分析, 广西, Agro-meteorological Disaster, Agricultural Production, Gray Correlation Analysis, Guangxi Province

中文摘要：

利用广西1981—2012年干旱、洪涝、低温冷害和风雹等4种农业气象灾害数据，并结合粮食作物单产资料，采用线性回归、滑动平均和灰色关联等分析方法，研究了广西近32年来农业气象灾害的变化特征及其对广西农业生产的影响。结果表明，1981—2012年4种农业气象灾害的受灾率变化均不明显，但具有阶段性特征。20世纪80年代至90年代初，干旱受灾率呈递增趋势，1988—1992年干旱受灾率居高不下，均在20%以上，90年代中后期干旱受灾率较小且变化平缓；21世纪以后广西又处于较旱阶段；洪涝、风雹、低温冷害在20世纪80年代至90年代初受灾率均相对较小，尤其是低温冷害少有发生；20世纪90年代中后期及以后，洪涝受灾率呈明显周期性波动减小，风雹受灾率呈明显周期性波动增大，低温冷害也呈周期性的暴发。4种农业气象灾害对农业影响程度为：对粮食作物、双季早稻、双季晚稻、玉米等，干旱＞洪涝＞风雹＞低温灾害；对单季稻而言，洪涝＞干旱＞风雹＞低温灾害，说明干旱和洪涝是影响广西农业生产的主要气象灾害。

英文摘要：

Based on the statistic data of drought,flood,wind-hail,low temperature,combining with grain yield data in Guangxi Province from 1981 to 2012,agro-meteorological disasters tendency variation and their impacting on grain yield in Guangxi Province was analyzed by using linear regression analysis, moving average and gray correlation analysis in this paper. The results showed that, in recent 32 years,the disaster-affected area rate change of wind-hail, while flood,drought and low temperature was not obvious, but existed phase characteristics. In 1980＇s and early 1990＇s, the disaster-affected area rate of drought was in increasing trend, especially, it t remained more than 20%during 1988-1992, while it was low and gentle changed in the middle and late 1990＇s,and recent period was in dry phase again. Relatively the disaster-affected area rate of blood and chilling damage and wind-hail was low, particularly chilling damage happened rarely. Since the middle of 1990＇s the disaster-affected area rate of flood presented to decrease, while wind-hail presented to increase obviously, chilling damage presented fluctuant trend. The impaction of agro-meteorological disasters on average grain yield and early rice yield and late rice yield and corn yield performed as, drought〉flood〉wind-hail〉chilling damage, on single-crop rice as, flood〉drought〉wind-hail〉chilling damage, which revealed drought and flood were major agro-meteorological disasters during grain production in Guangxi province.

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