中文摘要：

不同省份农村地区资源禀赋与经济社会发展水平的差距使得其养老脆弱性也存在较大差异，对农村养老脆弱性的省际差异测度及其影响因素的识别是提升养老保障政策针对性与可操作性的关键。文章基于2014年全国农村地区公开数据，从敏感性和应对能力两个维度构建农村地区养老脆弱性评价指标体系．采用集对分析方法对我国31个省（市、区）农村地区养老脆弱性指数进行了测算，借助AmGIS自然断点法将我图农村地区养老脆弱性划分为5个等级并对其省际差异进行空间可视化描述，在此基础上，利用障碍度模型分析了我国农村养老脆弱性的影响因素。研究发现：①我国农树地区养老脆弱性总体上处于中等区，但呈现出明显的省际差异、区域差异以及区域内部差异；②不同省份农村地区养老敏感性和养老应对能力的差异较大，且对养老脆弱性的形成产生程度不一的影响。总体上。东部省份农村养老脆弱性明显低于中西部省份；③农村地区养老脆弱性省际差异的形成受到老年抚养比、国家级贫困县数量、低保中老年人占比、农作物受灾面积和医疗保健支出占比等多种因素的影响。文章认为，在全面提升农村养老服务供给水平的基础上，进一步促进区域经济社会协调发展、强化中西部省份农村养老服务体系建设的投入力度成为降低农村养老脆弱性的关键。

英文摘要：

Different levels of resource endowment and social-economic development in rural areas cause big differences in the vulnerability of the old-age supporting system. The recognition of the inter-provincial difference and its influencing factors of the vulnerability of the rural old-age support system are important to improve the pertinence and maneuverability of the old-age supporting policy. Based on the national rural areas data in 2014, this paper constructed the evaluation index system of the rural old-age supporting system vulnerability from the two dimensions of sensitivity and coping ability. By using the method of set pair analysis, the vulnerability of 31 provinces was calculated and analyzed. By using ArcGIS natural break point method, the vulnerability of the old-age supporting system in rural areas was divided into five grades and the spatial visualization of the difference was described. On this basis, the influence factors of the vulnerability was analyzed by using the obstacle degree model. It drew following conclusions ： （1） The vulnerability of the old-age supporting system in rural areas in China is in the middle area; however, there are obvious differences between provinces and regions. （2）The differences of sensitivity and coping ability of the old-age supporting system in rural areas of different provinces are great, and have different impacts on the formation of the vulnerability. （3）The elderly dependency ratio, the number of state-level poverty-stricken counties, and affected area of crops have a strong influence on the formation of vulnerability of the old-age supporting system. Based on the results above, promoting the coordinated development of regional economy and society and strengthening the construction of the rural service system in the central and western provinces are the essential to reduce the vulnerability of old-age supporting system.