中文摘要：

本文利用2006～2008年35家券商公开发布的分析师推荐评级调整样本，检验了券商荐股评级统计分布特征是否有助于投资者预测分析师荐股的获利潜力。研究表明：券商推荐评级分布信息对于投资者预测分析师荐股评级调整的短期与中长期绩效有重要参考价值，该信息可以提升投资者甄别不同可信度分析师荐股绩效的能力。除此之外，本文为进一步深入思考分析师利益冲突来源及其对投资者利益的影响机理提供了新的视角，是对分析师利益冲突与荐股业绩关系问题等现有研究文献的重要补充。

英文摘要：

In this paper, we used the analysts＇ stock rating change samples from 35 brokers between 2006 and 2008 to test whether the distribution information of broker＇ s stock rating can help investors to forecast the profit potential of analysts＇ recommendations. Our research results show that the distribution information of broker＇ s stock rating has an important reference value for investors to forecast analysts＇ rating change performance both in short term and long term. This information can improve investors＇ distinction ability of analysts＇ recommendation performance with different credibility. Furthermore, we have revealed empirical evidence that analysts＇ interest conflict does not always harm investors＇ interest. This evidence provides a new perspective to analyze the source of analysts＇ interest conflict and its＇ impact on investors＇ interest. It is also an important supplement for the contemporary literature of analysts＇ interest conflicts.