中文摘要：

通过分析广西北部湾集装箱吞吐量的发展现状,以广西北部湾2009年至2015年集装箱吞吐量数据为依据,建立灰色预测模型并进行检验,检验结果表明：所有参数精度等级均较高,预测结果较为精准,可用于科学预测。根据预测结果,提出应以高起点、高标准、高要求建设集装箱码头;集中优势资源,完善航线布局,加快中转业务发展;与湛江港互相喂给,形成互利合作的机制;扩大保税物流体系的溢出效应,加强与船公司和货主的合作;加大专业人才引进、储备与培训;细化政策,调整补贴侧重等对策建议,以期为政府决策提供政策建议。

英文摘要：

A Grey Forecasting Model was set based on the analysis of current development of Beibu Gulf container through- put, and data of Guangxi Beibu Gulf container throughput from 2009 to 2015. The result show that all parameters＇ accuracy rate are excellent and the prediction is accurate thus can be used as scientific prediction. Based on the forecasting results, some strat- egies and suggestions are made in the paper for government＇ s reference： firstly, building container terminals on a high starting point , high standard and high requirement; secondly, speeding up transit business by centralizing advantageous resources and im- proving route layout; thirdly, building up a mutual beneficial cooperation mechanism by cooperating with Zhejiang Port; fourthly, expanding the spillover effect of the bonded logistics system, strengthening the cooperation with shipping companies and shippers ; fifthly, strengthening professional talent introduction, reservation and training; sixthly, refining related polices and adjusting sub- sidies focus, etc.