中文摘要：

根据广西远洋渔业产量现状，运用灰色系统理论和方法，构建广西远洋渔业产量的离散灰色DGM（1，1）模型。预测结果表明，离散灰色DGM（1，1）模型能够明显地提高广西远洋渔业产量的预测精度，增加预测的可靠性。为了广西远洋渔业的发展，应完善远洋渔业统计，构建远洋渔业基础数据平台；服务国家海洋战略，加强对远洋渔业的激励与保护；优化远洋渔业格局，加大远洋渔业政策扶持力度；组建现代化远洋渔业船队，努力构建远洋渔业产业体系；提高远洋渔业科技含量，强化远洋渔业安全生产管理。

英文摘要：

Based on analyzing the current situation of Guangxi ocean fishery output, the author established Discrete Grey Model （DGM） （ 1,1 ） by using the theory and method of Grey System to predict of pelagic fishery in Guangxi. The prediction results showed that the DGM （ 1,1 ） could significantly improve the prediction accuracy and reliability of Guangxi ocean fishery out-put. Finally, the paper proposed a series of countermeasures and suggestions including improving statistics and basic-data platform of pelagic fishery;promoting national ocean strategy and strengthening incentives and protection;optimizing the pattern and policy support;setting up modern pelagic fishing fleet and striving to build a deep-sea fishery industry system;enhancing its content of science and technology, and facilitating the safety management.