通过扩展柯布一道格拉斯生产函数,构建包括基础设施、产业结构及外部效应的面板计量模型和空间杜宾模型,采用中国2003—2012年281个地级及以上的城市数据,基于GMM方法与拟极大似然法,测算了基础设施建设、产业结构升级的本地效应与空间效应。结果显示:从城市内部看,基础设施建设对城市生产率的影响为正,产业结构升级影响为负;从空间上看,基础设施建设的直接效应为正,空间溢出却为负,具有虹吸特征;产业结构升级的直接效应与空间溢出均为负,水波效应明显;从区际看,三大城市群连绵带基础设施建设、产业结构升级的本地效应与空间溢出效应都存在差异,其中长江流域城市群基础建设的要素虹吸效应最明显,产业结构升级负效应较小,新常态下可望形成新的经济增长极。
Based on China's 2003-2012 data from from 281 prefecture--level cities and above, GMM and quasi maximum likelihood method, the paper estimates the local effects and spatial effects of infrastructure construction and upgrading of industrial structure. The results showe: from the inside, the influence of infrastructure construction on city productivity is positive, and the upgrading of the industrial structure effect is negative~ from the space, the feedback effect of infra- structure construction is positive, and spatial spillover is negative with siphon feature; the upgra- ding of the industrial structure and spatial spillovers are negative, and the waves effect is obvious; as for the inter district, the local effect and the spillover effect of three big city gloups' continuous zone infrastructure construction, upgrading of the industrial structure are different, anong which the Yangtse River city group is the most obvious, with small negative effect. In new normal state it is to form a new economic growth pole.