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中文摘要：
结合现行桥涵设计规范及钢筋混凝土拱桥的受力特点，给出钢筋混凝土拱桥“安全-中介-失效”三级工作模式的相应概率。基于时变可靠度理论，将随机有限元、神经网络和蒙特卡罗法结合，提出评估在役桥梁结构可靠度的FNM法，即，用随机有限元法计算训练样本，再用神经网络扩展训练样本，然后通过蒙特卡罗法计算失效概率和损伤概率，得到结构的时变可靠度，以判断结构的工作状态。对1座建成8年、主跨为80m的钢筋混凝土拱桥进行时变可靠度分析。结果表明：该桥主拱在第8年时，已进入虽有损伤但仍能工作的中介状态，需要维修加固。这一结论与实际情况相符。
英文摘要：
Combining with the current bridge design specifications and stress characteristics of reinforced concrete arch bridge, determination principle of ＂safe-intermediate-failure＂ three-stage mode and corresponding probabilities are given. Based on time-dependent reliability theory, the combined FNM （Finite element-Neural network-Monte-Carlo simulation） method is putted forward to estimate the reliability of inservice bridge. Stochastic finite element method is used to calculate training samples. Neural network is used to enlarge training samples. Damage probability and failure probability are got from Monte-Carlo method, and the time-dependent reliability indices are obtained consequently, which can be used to determine the work stage of structure. A case study is investigated to estimate the reliability of an actual bridge. The bridge is a concrete arch bridge with 80 m span, which has been in service for 8 years. According to analysis results, the example bridge has fallen into intermediary status since the eighth year, needing maintenance and strengthening. This conclusion is consistent with the fact.
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