中文摘要：

以景德镇历代窑址景观中的典型代表——南河流域窑址景观演变为研究对象,在Matlab 7.0软件环境下建立逻辑回归模型,得出每一地块发展的全局概率,随后把每一地块全局概率代入Flash CS 3.0软件,利用ActionScript 3.0语言编程实现元胞自动机模型。通过此模型模拟了五代至明末这段历史时期景德镇南河流域窑址景观的演变过程。模拟结果得到的Moran’s I指数与实际情况下的Moran’s I指数比较接近,表明模拟的空间格局与实际情况吻合较好。这也说明应用元胞自动机理论研究历史时期景德镇陶瓷文化景观的演变是有效可行的。

英文摘要：

In this paper we take the landscape evolvement of kiln site remains at Nanhe river basin,which are the typical representatives of the kiln site remains in past dynasties in Jingdezhen,as the research object,and construct the logistic regression model in Matlab7.0 software environment to get global probability of the development in every block,then input them into FlashCs3.0 software,and program using ActionScript3.0 language to realise the CA model.With this model we simulate the kiln site remains landscape evolution process in Nanhe river basin of Jingdezhen during the period from the Five Dynasties to late Ming dynasty.The Moran＇s I index derived from the simulation result is fairly closed to that of the practical situation,this indicates that the spatial pattern simulated is quite consistent with the practical circumstance.This also states that the application of cellular automata theory is effective and feasible in the research of the historical period of Jingdezhen ceramics culture landscape evolution.