中文摘要：

本文选取影响嫩江径流变化的主要大气环流指标进行相关分析,以揭示大气环流指标对于径流空间和时程影响规律。分析结果表明：在空间分布上,嫩江流域干流及支流径流与大气环流主要指标相关性存在明显的空间分布特征,即上游断面径流与大气环流指标相关性较大,下游相关性较小。在时程演变上,嫩江流域径流与前1个月的大气环流指标相关性较大,与其他前期月份的相关性迅速减小,说明在做中长期径流预报时,大气环流前滞期可以选1个月,更较前的大气环流对当月径流影响不大。这些结论可以为中长期径流预报预报因子的选择和预报模型的建立提供基础参考。

英文摘要：

In this paper,the main atmospheric circulation indexes that affect runoff changes of Nenjiang River were selected to make correlation analysis,so as to reveal the discipline of influence of atmospheric circulation indexes on time and spatial changes of runoff.The results show that in the aspect of spatial distribution,there exist obvious spatial distribution characteristics between runoff of Nenjiang River basin＇s mainstreams and tributary streams and correlation of atmospheric circulation indexes spatially.There is a greater correlation between the runoff of upper reaches section and atmospheric circulation indexes,a smaller correlation between the runoff of lower reaches section and atmospheric circulation indexes.In the aspect of time evolution,the runoff of Nenjiang River basin has a greater correlation with the atmospheric circulation indexes of the previous month,a smaller correlation with other months.It suggests when forecasting the medium and long-term runoff,a month can be chosen as the lag phase of atmospheric circulation,atmospheric circulation of other months have a smaller correlation with current month runoff.All the conclusions can provide a basic reference for making medium and long-term runoff prediction and building the forecasting model.