中文摘要：

房地产投资能够直接带动国民经济增长,但发展过快也会给经济带来负效应,协调好房地产投资与国民经济发展的关系尤为重要。本文首先综述国内外相关研究成果,发现现有定量研究无法真实反映房地产业本身结构的变化;其次,建立时变参数模型,对房地产投资与国民经济发展之间的关系进行了实证研究;最后得出研究结论和政策建议。本文的研究结论：一是房地产投资对GDP拉动作用显著;二是房地产投资受GDP、国内银行贷款以及利率的影响各不相同。与现有研究文献相比较,本文在研究视角和方法上均有—定的突破。

英文摘要：

This paper examines the real estate investment in China based on the time-varying parameter medel.The authors suggest that China should focus on the study of investment proportion between Chinese and overseas investors.At the same time,investment demand for housing and consumer demand for housing should be distinguished to optimize regional investment environment for real estate under current economic structure and to carry out different macro control policies accordingly.Coastal areas in southeast China boast better investment environment for real estate with high economic development level and dense urban population.In contrast,China＇s interior provinces take no advantage in terms of investment environment for real estate as they are underdeveloped in both economy and urbanization.However,among these provinces,those subsidized and supported by national policy can proclaim huge potential for real estate development,corresponding to the development progress of China＇s economy.The research find that（1） REI gives a significant boost to GDP growth as elasticity of REI remains at 0.531 to 0.546 constantly;（2） GDP,domestic bank loans as one of the real estate development funds sources and interest rate have different effects on REI.Output elasticity of REI is 1.38 to 1.35 and the positive effect of which appears in the third quarter of the year and continues in the almost one year thereafter;loan elasticity of REI is 0.15 to 0.31 and the positive effect of which appears in the first quarter of the year and keeps rising thereafter but remains positive within two years;interest rate elasticity of REI is-0.56 to-1.17 and the negative effect of which begins with a time lag of two quarters and reaches the peak in the sixth quarter.