中文摘要：

通过对1997—2014年中国大陆30个省份面板数据的协整分析,测度了中国各省旅游业发展、国民生产总值（GDP）、碳排放及城镇化水平之间的长期均衡关系,定量分析了旅游业对GDP、碳排放及城镇化的影响程度。从全国范围来看,旅游对GDP具有显著正向影响,对碳排放具有显著负向影响,而对城镇化水平的影响为微弱的正向影响;经济发展和城镇化对旅游发展有显著正效应,而碳排放对旅游发展有显著负效应。从区域范围来看,东北地区旅游业对GDP发展的贡献率最高,华东最低;旅游业对碳排放的影响仅在西北、华南、东北3个地区呈现负效应,即旅游业起到了缓解环境污染的作用,但在其他地区旅游业却成为环境污染的新来源;旅游业对全国城镇化进程有微弱的正面影响,但在华北、华南、华东地区却表现为明显的负效应。

英文摘要：

This paper, based on co-integrated analysis on China＇s 30 provinces＇ panel data from 1997--2014, measures their long-term balance among tourism development, GDP, carbon emission and urbanization, quantitatively analyzes the influence of tourism development on GDP, carbon emission and urbanization. Viewing from a national scale, tourism imposes a positive influence over GDP, but a negative over carbon emission, and a weakly positive over urbanization. Economy and urbanization have a positive influence on tourism, but carbon emission has a negative. From a regional point of view, northeastern China＇s tourism makes a maximum contribution to GDP while eastern China makes the least. Tourism imposes positive influence over carbon emission only in northwestern, southern and northeastern China, indicating mitigating environmental pollution, but becoming a new pollution source in others. Tourism industry casts a weakly positive influence on national urbanization, but negative on northeastern, southern and eastern China.