结合2005年1月至2015年3月间羊肉价格,运用X-12、协整方法和有限滞后分布模型分析其波动特征、动态变化与关联效应。结果显示:2005年以来,中国羊肉价格保持波动上涨趋势,阶段性特征明显;但2015年产业进入调整发展阶段,羊肉价格变动季节性显著且有收窄趋势;肉羊产业链存在协整关系;牛肉、鸡肉、玉米、豆粕、小麦麸皮与CPI是影响羊肉价格的显著因素。为此,应保证肉羊存栏数量稳定,保障养殖户基本收益;加大科技创新力度,依靠科技提升产业竞争力;加强对前端饲料行业的监管;规范肉羊屠宰加工企业收购行为,加快制定肉羊屠宰分割与分等定级标准等政策,多方面促进肉羊产业实现升级发展。
Based on X-12,Johansen cointegration test and Finite Lag Distribution Model,this paper analyzes fluctuation characteristics,dynamic changes and correlation effects of mutton price. The paper finds that the seasonal fluctuating mutton prices has risen since 2005,and in 2015 the cointegrated industry entered a new stage,price of beef,chicken,corn,soybean meal,wheat bran and CPI affect mutton price significantly. To promote the development of the sheep industry,the paper suggests that number stability of sheep herds and the basic income of farmers be ensured,investment on technological innovation be increased,supervision of the feed industry be strengthened,sheep slaughtering and processing enterprises acquisitions be regulated,development of sheep slaughtering and grading standards be accelerated.