中文摘要：

社区防灾减灾能力建设是区域减轻灾害风险、降低灾害损失的根本所在。从＂全国综合减灾示范社区＂名录入手,分析了中国县域尺度综合减灾示范社区的时空间格局,构建了基于历史灾害频次、人口与经济状况的县域综合减灾示范社区理论数量的推算模型。结果表明：中国综合减灾示范社区的创建经历了＂先东部、后西部,东西共同迅速扩展＂的过程,呈现出明显的区域差异,高值区集中于首都圈、长三角、珠三角和沿长江经济带;县域人口密度、人均GDP和灾害频次可在一定程度上决定综合减灾示范社区数量;福建沿海、长三角与珠三角外围、首都圈东部、川渝陕交界等11个片区是近期示范社区创建的重点区域。研究结论可为区域综合减灾示范社区的合理布局提供依据。

英文摘要：

Community plays an important role in regional natural disaster risk reduction and in minimizing disaster losses by community＇s disaster prevention and mitigation capacity building. Based on the list of the ＂National Model Community of Comprehensive Disaster-reduction in China＂ （NMCCDRC） since March, 2008, this article analyzed the temporal and spatial pattern of NMCCDRC and its dynamic characteristics at the county scale. A quantitative model was constrt~cted to regress the relationship between the number of NMCCDRC and population density, GDP per capita, the frequency of natural disaster during 1949-2010 in most counties of China. The results show that, NMCCDRC has experienced ＂Eastern Provinces first, followed by Western Provinces and rapid expansion in most of provinces of China＂ ; and an obvious regional difference has been revealed at the national scale, meaning that, most of NMCCDRC are located in circles of Beijing-Tianjin, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and the economic belt along the Yangtze River. The number of the NMCCDRC in a county is decided by the population density, GDP per capita and the frequency of natural disasters in the past 60 years in the same county. Eleven regions, including the coastal regions of Fujian Province, the outer regions of Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, the eastern parts of the circle of Beijing-Tianjin, the bordering areas of Sichuan, Chongqing and Shanxi, and so on, are the major regions to construct the NMCCDRC in the near future. The research could provide a support reference to decision making on the optimized pattern of NMCCDRC at the national and regional scales.