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中文摘要：
为实现Femtocell（飞蜂窝）无线蜂窝网络系统有限资源的优化管理和分配，利用基于半马尔可夫过程的预测模型实现网络容量及用户行为预测。根据半马尔可夫模型计算 Femtocell网络中移动用户位置转移的概率大小，区别估计网络中活跃用户数和空闲用户数以及设备容量极限值对转移用户的影响。研究结果表明，基于半马尔可夫过程的移动用户预测模型，能更准确地表现网络中用户特性，有助于合理搭建网络和调配网络资源。
英文摘要：
In order to optimize the management and allocation of the wireless network resources in Femtocell network,the network capacity and users′behavior are predicted by the prediction model based on semi-Markov process.The network mo-bile users′likelihood of the next-cell transition is calculated by the model.The model can estimate the number of active users and idle users and the influence of equipment capacity limit value to the transfer users in the network.The result shows that the prediction model based on semi-Markov process can indicates the network characteristics and contributes to set up a net-work and allocate reasonably network resource.
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