中文摘要：

环境规制主要通过技术创新效应和FDI效应而实现产业升级,而人力资本状况是这一路径实现的重要保障。采用1998—2013年我国30个省的面板数据,以人力资本水平为门槛变量,通过构建门槛回归模型检验发现,环境规制对产业升级的影响存在门槛效应。当人力资本处于较低水平时,环境规制对产业升级具有并不显著的正向促进作用;当人力资本水平超过第一门槛值时,环境规制对产业升级具有非常显著的正向促进作用;而当人力资本水平超过第二门槛值时,环境规制对产业升级变为并不显著的抑制作用。因此,在提高本地区人力资本水平的同时,更应该注重提高人力资本与产业结构、产业发展的横向及纵向“耦合”度,从而更大程度地发挥环境规制对产业升级的促进作用。

英文摘要：

Environmental regulation can achieve industrial upgrading mainly through the technology innovation effect and FDI effect, for which human capital is the important guarantee. This paper builds the threshold regression model by using the panel data of 30 provinces from 1998 to 2013, and taking the human capital as the threshold variable. The results show that there is threshold effect between environmental regulation and industrial upgrading. When the human capital is at a low level, the environmental regulation has not significantly positive effect on the industrial upgrading, when the level of human capital exceeds the first threshold, the environmental regulation has a very significant positive effect on industrial upgrading, when the level of human capital is more than second threshold, the environmental regulation has not significantly negative effect on the industrial upgrading. Therefore, we should pay more attention to improve horizontal ＂coupling＂ degree of human capital with industrial structure and vertical ＂coupling＂ degree of human capital with industry development at the time of improving the level of human capital, so that the environmental regulation can play more important role in promoting industrial upgrading.