中文摘要：

研究目的：研究全面放开二孩政策对未来城乡人口和建设用地间的供需变动和影响。研究方法：利用人口学的队列元素法对中国总人口及省际人口变化进行预测,建立城乡人口与城乡建设用地的双对数线性回归模型,测算二孩政策下2016—2030年全国和各省（市、自治区）的城乡人口及城乡建设用地需求量。研究结果：（1）2016—2030年中国城乡建设用地总体需求量将不断上升,城市建设用地需求明显大于农村建设用地的需求,且在人口快速释放的第一阶段（2016—2020年）城乡建设用地增加趋势明显,后期趋于平稳,但未来建设用地供需平衡矛盾将持续加大;（2）随着各省（市、自治区）城市人口的不断增加及农村人口的不断减少,城市建设用地需求量上升,变化速率渐缓,个别省市的农村建设用地需求下降,且不同省市之间的人均建设用地的变化并不一致,没有明显的规律性。研究结论：全面放开二孩政策对未来的城乡建设用地需求产生重要影响,应该因地制宜,提早应对。

英文摘要：

It is important to study the supply and demand relationship between urban-rural construction land and population growth after the universal two-child policy. It employs cohort-component method to forecast total population change in national and provincial dimensions in the next 15 years, and builds the double log linear regression model between urban-rural construction land and population to forecast their land demand in national and provincial dimensions. The results showed that 1）Gross demand of national urban-rural construction land will continue to increase, and the demand of urban construction land is significantly greater than rural construction land. On the first stage of the population rapid increase（2016-2020）, urban-rural construction land will increase rapidly, and then tends to be stable, but the contradiction of construction land supply and demand will be more severe in future. 2）With the increase of the urban population and the decrease of the rural population in these provinces（municipalities and autonomous regions）, urban construction demand increases, but the change rate becomes slower than ever, rural construction land demand in a handful of provinces decrease, and the change of per capita construction land between different provinces is not consistent, showing no obvious regularity. It concludes that the Universal Two-child Policy has a vital impact on urbanrural construction land demand, thereby we urgently needs to put forward appropriate countermeasures.