中文摘要：

该文在对国家资源安全长期研究的基础上,引进PSR模型,构建了中国资源安全动态跟踪评价指标体系,以翔实的数据统计为依据,运用AHP和Delph i等方法对1991～2007年影响我国国家资源安全系统的压力、状态、响应各因素的变化轨迹实施了模拟跟踪。对跟踪结果分析表明,尽管我国政府和有关机构采取了积极的资源安全响应对策,但是国家资源安全总体水平仍呈下降态势,根本原因在于人口、GDP、资源贸易等压力在逐年增长,导致资源安全状态较为脆弱。

英文摘要：

Based on the long-term research on the state resources security,this paper introduced the PSR model,constructed the dynamic tracing evaluation index system of China resources security.With detailed data statistics,the AHP and Delphi methods were used to simulate and trace the change track of factors influencing the pressure,situation,and response of China＇s state resources security system from 1991 ~ 2007.The results indicated that China＇s government and relevant authorities had taken active response measures on resources security,but the overall level of the state＇s resources security still showed a trend of decline,the basic reasons was that the stress of the population,GDP,and resource trade were increasing year by year and hence caused resources security vulnerable.