中文摘要：

在基于CAE的冲压成形性容差预测中,以较少的模拟次数达到工程上可以接受的预测精度是响应面法得以应用的关键.充分考虑到冲压成形数值模拟中可能出现的不确定性波动,允许响应量中存在异常响应,提出一种基于稳健回归的随机响应面法.通过一个数学算例的计算对比,表明所提出方法不但能显著减少模拟次数而且精度与Monte Carlo法相当.将该方法应用于一个复杂冲压件的成形性容差预测中,验证了其在冲压成形性容差预测中的可行性.

英文摘要：

According to the CAE-based tolerance prediction of formability in stamping process, it is a key to obtain enough accuracy with relatively fewer simulations for response surface method to apply in engineering. Considering the uncertainty which may be occurring in the simulation of a stamping process,the outlier of response is allowed and a stochastic response surface method （SRSM） based on robust regression was presented. Through an illustrative mathematical example, this method requires much less simulations than Monte Carlo method while has comparative accuracy. In the end, the approach was applied to the tolerance prediction of the formability of a complex drawing part to validate its feasibility.