中文摘要：

本文针对我国高技术产业技术引进下降的原因,基于面板数据模型、分位数回归、状态空间方程、贝叶斯向量自回归模型进行了全面系统的分析。研究结果表明,我国并没有走上对引进技术依赖过重的道路,引进技术总体呈现下降趋势;引进技术对创新成果贡献的弹性系数随着时间的推延和创新成果规模的增加在不断提高;高技术产业仍处于对引进技术的适应期,引进技术的总体绩效仍然不高,引进技术与创新成果无关;引进技术与自主研发投入存在一定的替代关系,消化吸收水平不高。引进技术下降的原因包括：我国对引进技术的消化吸收再创新能力不足;适度控制技术引进对我国高技术产业创新的发展是有利的;随着我国自主创新能力的增强,对引进技术的依赖程度逐渐降低,最后提出了相关政策建议。

英文摘要：

In view of China＇s decline in introduced technology of high -tech industry, based on panel data models, quantile regression, state space equation, Bayesian vector autoregressive model, this paper develops a comprehensive systematic analysis. The results dem- onstrate that our country is not on the path which is dependent on imported technology heavily and the imported technology shows a downward trend in general. With time going by and the increase in the scale of innovation, the elasticity coefficient of imported technol- ogy contributing to innovation is constantly improving. High technology industry is still in the adjustment period to the imported technol- ogy. The overall performance of introduced technology is still not so high. Imported technology and innovation are irrelevant. There is a certain alternative relationship between introduced technology and independent R＆D investment, however the ability of digestion and absorption is not very good. The reasons why imported technology decline including： our country＇ s ability of digestion, absorption, and re - innovation to imported technology is not sufficient. The appropriate control on imported technology can be beneficial to the develop- ment of innovation in China＇ s high - tech industry. With capacity for independent innovation increasing, the dependence on imported technology is gradually reduced. And finally it puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions.