中文摘要：

为了研究机械制造行业综合危险性,应用系统动力学理论和方法,结合层次分析法（AHP）、预先危险性分析-作业条件危险性评价法（PHA-LEC）、模糊综合评价法以及安全检查表法（SCL）等评价技术,利用仿真技术构造机械行业危险性整体框架,研究机械制造行业突发事故的危险程度,并以＂8·2昆山粉尘爆炸事故＂作为具体实例,综合评价突发事故的危险性。

英文摘要：

In order to study the dangerous level of machinery manufacturing industry,the theory and methods of system dynamics are applied,and the simulation technology is used to structure the overall framework of machinery manufacturing industry risks combined with safety evaluation methods,such as AHP,PHA- LEC,SCL and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Regarding ＂8·2 Kunshan Dust Explosion＂as the case,the dangerous levels of accidents are comprehensively assessed.