中文摘要：

基于1978-2011年中国农村居民收入区域差距基尼系数，运用二次指数平滑法和ARMA模型，对2012--2015年农村居民收入省际间差距和区际间差距进行了预测分析，探寻差距未来发展趋势。研究结论为：第一，农村居民收入区域差距遵循倒“U”轨迹趋势，且区际间差距下降速度快于省际间差距；第二，农村居民收入区际间基尼系数长期并继续位于省际间基尼系数下方运行，即区际间农村居民收入差距小于省际间农村居民收入差距。

英文摘要：

Based on the Gini coefficient of rural residents＇ income regional disparities during 1978--2011, using second exponential smoothing and ARMA model, predict the rural residents＇ income disparities inter-provin- cial and inter-regional during 2012--2015, in order to analyze the future trends of income gap. The study proves that ： Firstly, rural residents＇ income disparities follow the path of inverted U curve, and the decline rate of inter-regional faster than inter-provincial; Secondly, the Gini coefficient of rural residents＇ income inter-regional long-term and continue running below in the inter-provincial, that means the rural residents＇ income disparities of inter-regional less than inter-provincial.