本文基于宏观审慎思想构建了植入货币政策立场的信贷传导微观模型,运用“文本挖掘法”设计了货币政策立场指数,结合2001-2012年37家商业银行的数据,通过系统广义矩估计与面板分位数回归考察了货币政策立场对银行信贷的影响。研究结果显示:(1)宽松的货币政策立场会增加商业银行的贷款规模,并放大货币政策工具的信贷扩张效果;(2)股份制商业银行对货币政策立场冲击的响应最为显著,大型商业银行紧随其后,城市商业银行最迟钝。因此,货币当局应从宏观审慎视角出发,综合研判货币政策立场对银行信贷的总量影响与结构影响,提高调控的前瞻性与针对性。
From the macro-prudential perspective, this paper builds a micro-credit model with monetary policy stance. Using monetary policy stance index madding by "Text Mining" and data of 36 commercial banks from 2001 to 2012, we conducted a systematic GMM and panel quantile regression. The results showed that: Firstly, accommodative monetary policy stance will increase the size of commercial banks' loans, and strengthen the credit expansion effect of monetary policy instruments. Secondly, joint-stock commercial banks have most prominent response to monetary policy stance shocks, followed by large commercial banks and city commercial banks respond lastly. Therefore, from the macro-prudential perspective, the monetary authorities should comprehensively analyze the impact of monetary policy stance on different types of commercial banks credit.