中文摘要：

随着信息化技术在武器装备系统中所占比重的扩大，武器装备系统复杂性急剧增加，装备研制与使用保障费用逐年升高，费用分配不合理和使用率低下等问题越来越严重。飞机作为特殊的复杂装备，费用问题更为严峻。因此，对飞机研制费用风险进行研究，进而为有效提高飞机作战性能、严格控制费用增长提供理论支撑具有重大意义。基于蒙特卡洛在费用风险分析方面的适用性及传统蒙特卡洛的不足，提出了利用基于风险驱动理论的改进蒙特卡洛处理飞机研制费用的风险建模。并以飞机结构件某单位机翼研制项目为例，利用@risk软件进行了费用风险的改进蒙特卡罗建模与分析，对改进方法的合理性和有效性进行了验证。

英文摘要：

With the expansion of information technology for equipment system, the system complexity of equipment increases rapidly, the costs of equipment development and mainte- nance increased year by year, unreasonable distribution of costs and the relatively low adoption rate of equipment become more and more serious. As a complex equipment special, the costs of aircrafts are more serious. Therefore, conducting the risk of equipment aircraft＇s costs is of great significance to improve the performance of equipments, to strictly control the growth of costs. Aiming at the shortage of the traditional Monte Carlo in cost risk, the paper puts forward the Improved Monte Carlo based on the risk driven theory, modeling and analyzing the costs risk on the wing development using the software, @risk, verify the rationality and validity of the Improved Monte Carlo.