耕地资源是实现国家粮食安全最基础的物质条件,而国家生态补偿政策、农业劳动力析出和气候灾害等因素显著影响了内蒙古农牧交错带的耕地流转进程和农户生计。为了研究退耕还林政策、种粮补贴政策、农业劳动力转移等与耕地流转之间相关关系,本文选择内蒙古太仆寺旗千斤沟镇和幸福乡两差别显著的乡镇作为研究区域,采用访谈式调研获得农户家庭基本情况、适应能力和区域自然灾害影响情况等第一手数据,选取农户成员特征、家庭资源配置和经济特征方面共计15个变量,借助二元Logistic回归分析方法建立基于微观经济主体农户的耕地流出模型。幸福乡由于土地质量较差,农户对耕地较强依赖性,以及缺少企业蔬菜种植基地园区,耕地流转进程受阻。千斤沟镇耕地流出模型运行结果表明,户主年龄、务农人员平均文化程度、打工人数、家庭拥有耕地面积、租地收入、农业收入比重和家庭收入水平能够促进农户流出耕地,而农业收入比重则抑制了农户流出耕地的行为。论文构建的耕地流转模型揭示了影响农户耕地流转的主要因素及其影响程度,有利于深入探索促进耕地资源有效利用以及农业适度规模经营的途径,同时也能够为国家更好地制定生态补偿政策和粮食直补政策提供参考。
Farmland resources are the most basic physical condition of guaranteeing national food security, but climatic disasters, national ecological compensation policy and agricultural labor movements are changing farmland vulnerability and household livelihoods. The vulnerability and resilience of the Farming-pastoral Transition zone in Inner Mongolia has received increasing attention from scientists at home and abroad. Farmland transfer is a common phenomenon in the study area, and has a remarkable impact on household livelihoods and farmlands' vulnerability and resilience. To study the relationship between farmland transfer and grain for green policy, grain subsidy policy, agricultural labor transfer and climatic disaster, Qianjingou Town and Xingfu County in Taipusi were selected as focal areas. We interviewed selected households and used binary logistic regression analysis methods to build a farmland transfer out model based on the micro-economy subject-household. Farmland in Xingfu County cannot be transferred because of a strong dependency between households and land, poor land quality and lack of vegetable cultivation, while farmland in Qianjingou Town has a significant outflow phenomenon. Computational results from the farmland transfer out model for Qianjingou Town shows that household age, average educational level of farmers, number of migrant workers, farmland acreage, and income and lease income facilitated farmland transfer out, while proportion of agricultural income inhibited farmland transfer out. Results reveal the main factors that lead to household farmland transfers. Building farmland transfer models such as those presented here is conducive to exploring the effective use of farmland resources and optimum-scale farm management and the development of eco-compensation policy.