中文摘要：

为优化和评价交叉口车流运行状况,根据信号控制交叉口交通流到达率的随机特点,引入相位清空可靠度指标用于评估交叉口可靠性.基于概率论,研究了相位清空可靠度与周期时长、相位绿灯时间的定量关系,利用Gauss消元法推导得到了交通流到达率分别服从正态分布和负指数分布时的相位清空可靠度计算公式.以两相位信号交叉口为例进行了仿真实验.结果表明：交通流到达率的方差越大,周期时长也越大,且到达率方差较大的相位需要更多的绿灯时间,可见到达率的概率分布特征值对于周期时长、相位绿灯时间有显著影响,可利用相位清空可靠度指标进行交叉口信号配时参数设计和评价.

英文摘要：

With the stochastic characteristics analysis of traffic flow at a signalized intersection, the definition of phase clearance reliability is introduced to optimize and evaluate the status of traffic flow. Based on the probability theory and the Gaussian elimination method, the quantitative relationship is explored among phase clearance reliability, cycle length and green time. Then a calculation formula of the phase clearance reliability is deduced from the stochastic of traffic flow that obeys the normal distribution and negative exponential distribution. A simulation example of a two-phase signalized intersection is presented at the final section. The results indicate that the cycle length usually increases with the variance of arrival rate, and more green time is needed for the phase with larger variance of arrival rate. The randomness of arrival rate has a significant effect on cycle length and green time, and the phase clearance reliability can be used to design and evaluate the traffic signal settings.