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中文摘要：
植被动态可能导致全球碳循环和水循环的改变，并反馈于气候变化．本文以森林植被动态为重点，基于古生态学研究的成果论述了冰后期以来气候变化影响下植被动态的特点以及植被响应气候变化的模式，区分了气候对植被的胁迫作用、非气候因子对植被动态的缓冲作用以及干扰事件对植被分布改变的驱动作用。对过去研究的回顾表明，由于植被系统的开放性以及气候因子和非气候因子的共同作用，使得植被一气候关系远离平衡态，植被分布对气候变化的响应不是线性的，这也使得当前的植被分布与气候之间的关系难以量化．过去类比法、空间代替时间和动态全球植被模型是目前预测未来植被动态的3种主要途径，但都是建立在植被一气候关系平衡态的基础之上．提出动态全球植被模型较传统的经验性生物地理学模型更全面地考虑了植被动态的主要过程、火的干扰以及不同植物功能类群对气候变化响应方式的差异性，是未来的发展方向，但需要结合古生态学的相关成果，将时空尺度、气候变化本身的复杂性、非气候因子的作用、森林分布对气候变化的反馈以及人类活动对干扰的调控作用纳入模型中．
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