中文摘要：

采用IPCC 2006年版碳排放计算公式、经济-碳排放的动力学模型和水泥碳排放模型,提出了区域碳排量计算框架和研究方法,并以广东省为例,基于广东省社会经济统计数据、能源消费数据、水泥产量数据和森林碳汇数据,预测了广东省2008—2050年能源消费碳排放量、水泥消费量和碳排放量、森林碳汇值.结果表明：2008—2050年,广东省水泥产量及其生产过程中的碳排放量基本稳定,年碳排放量在10~15 Mt C;广东省能源消费碳排放和总的碳排放趋势均呈倒U型曲线,其峰值年份分别在2035和2036年;2008—2050年,广东省碳排放强度将持续下降,森林碳汇量呈波动式下降趋势.本文提出的区域碳排放计算框架在广东省具有可行性和合理性.

英文摘要：

By using IPCC carbon emission calculation formula（2006 edition）,economy-carbon emission dynamic model,and cement carbon emission model,a regional carbon emission calculation framework was established,and,taking Guangdong Province as a case,its energy consumption carbon emission,cement production CO2 emission,and forest carbon sink values in 2008-2050 were predicted,based on the socio-economic statistical data,energy consumption data,cement production data,and forest carbon sink data of the Province.In 2008-2050,the cement production CO2 emission in the Province would be basically stable,with an annual carbon emission being 10-15 Mt C,the energy consumption carbon emission and the total carbon emission would be in inverse U-shape,with the peaks occurred in 2035 and 2036,respectively,and the carbon emission intensity would be decreased constantly while the forest carbon sink would have a fluctuated decline.It was feasible and reasonable to use the regional carbon emission calculation framework established in this paper to calculate the carbon emission in Guangdong Province.