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中文摘要：
针对网络信息系统可靠性建模困难的问题，提出了一种新的可靠性估计的模糊神经Petri网方法。给出了模糊神经Petri网定义及其适用于可靠性建模的引发规则，并在此基础上提出一种学习算法，其既可以表示和处理模糊产生式规则的知识库系统，又具有学习能力。最后建立了信息系统可靠性评估模型，并通过定性分析和定量的实例计算，验证了算法的有效性。
英文摘要：
Aiming at the practical conditions of information systems, a fuzzy neural Petri-net method （FNPN） for estimating the reliability of information systems is proposed. The definition and fire-rules of this FNPN are presented. Then a learning algorithm is put forward. It can express and process the knowledge-based system of fuzzy productive rules, and posseses the capability of learning. Finally the model of reliability evaluation of information systems is established based on it. According to qualitative analysis and quantitative indices calculation, the results show that the model is effective and reasonable.
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