中文摘要：

为克服现有事故致因理论在揭示安全规制、文化与观念等隐性因素方面的不足,以引入多维度基本风险因素（BRF）概念的三脚架事故致因模型（Tripod-DELTA）为研究对象,运用解释结构模型（ISM）方法对天津＂8·12＂危化品爆炸事故致因进行证据分析与结构化建模。分析发现,天津危化品爆炸事故致因因素由直接层、中间层与间接层3个方面构成,政府监管不力是事故发生的最底部间接层因素。为此,改进了传统三脚架事故致因模型的风险节点以及控制环路。改进后的三脚架模型能描述BRF与危险源的内部构成,设计出管理型、实体型和组织型3种差异型安全栅,明确了安全栅的脆弱性是导致安全管理体系失效的重要原因。

英文摘要：

To overcome the deficiency of the exiting accident-causing theory in revealing the latent factors such as safety regulation, culture and conceptions, Tripod-DELTA which introduced the concept of multipledimension basic risk factors was taken as the research object, ISM method was used to carry out an evidence analysis and construct a structural model for the causes of Tianjin dangeous chemicals explosion accident. The results show that the Tianjin explosion accident is affected by three layers of factors, which are direct layer, middle layer and indirect layer, and that deficiencies of the government regulation are the most underlying and indirect cause of the accident. Thus, the risk node and control loop of the traditional Tripod-DELTA were improved. The improved Tripod-DELTA describes the internal structure of the basic risk factors and hazard factors. Three different safety grids were designed, which correspond to management, substance and organization respectively. It was clarified that the vulnerability of the safety grids is an important cause of the failure of the safety management system.