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中文摘要：
针对舰船航空保障系统易损性评估特性，提出一种易损性评估模型。考虑到系统设备毁伤的模糊随机特性以及设备之间复杂逻辑关系，在模糊Petri网（FPN）的模糊推理算法基础上，结合分层思想和具有非线性自反馈项的BP算法，建立了可用于复杂舰船系统易损性评估的改进FPN模型，摆脱了系统中大量无法确定参数对经验的依赖。最后根据该模型对航空保障系统易损性进行了评估，并对模型参数选择进行了分析。仿真结果表明，本文模型比传统损伤树方法更全面合理，对于复杂舰船系统易损性评估研究具有参考价值。
英文摘要：
According to the characteristics of vulnerability board, a vulnerability assessment model is presented. Consi assessment of aircraft guarantee system on dering the fuzzy and random characteristics of equipments failure and the sophisticated logic relationships among equipments on board, on the basis of fuzzy reasoning algorithm in fuzzy Petri net （FPN）, an improved FPN model which can be applied to evaluate vulnerability of complex systems on board was constructed, combined with layered thought and BP algorithm with nonlinear feedback. The new model is able to make a great number of uncertain parameters in the system which gets rid of the dependerue on experience. The selection of model parameters was discussed in detail, and then the model was used to evaluate vulnerability of aircraft guarantee system. The results comparison between the presented method and damage tree analysis method demonstrates exhaustiveness and rationality of this assessment model. The model would be applied to sophisticated system assessment on board.
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