中文摘要：

我国钢铁工业正在快速发展，目前已经成为世界钢铁大国，但还不是钢铁强国，在当前建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会的要求下，钢铁工业需要加强CO2减排工作。笔者在对中国钢铁工业节能减排现状研究的基础上，利用系统动力学，建立了中国钢铁工业钢铁需求量、能耗水平和CO2排放模型，并进行了相应计算，根据计算结果提出了中国钢铁工业CO2减排的对策。结论表明从内部需求和外部驱动两方面看，中国钢铁工业需要走低碳发展道路，钢铁工业可以在2020-2025年后将CO2排放量基本稳定下来。

英文摘要：

Iron and steel industry has a rapid development after the founding of the country, China becomes the world＇ s largest steel country now, but not strong. In the current situation of constructing resource-saving and environment-friendly society, we need to reduce the CO2 emission in iron and steel industry. In this paper, the model of the demand for steel, energy consumption and CO2 emission are built based on the system dynamics as a tool. And then, predictions are conducted based on three different scenarios. The conclusion shows that iron and steel industry in China needs to go low-carbon development path for the internal and external demand, CO2 emissions in the iron and steel industry will be steady after 2020 -2025.