中文摘要：

为了分析驾驶人因素导致道路交通安全系统失衡的原因,对交通规则约束下的驾驶人行为进行了建模与试验分析。采用复杂多个体系统建模、演化博弈分析与试验测试相结合的方法,剖析了驾驶人导致系统失衡及保持稳定性的条件。结果表明：微观层面道路交通安全系统的失衡主要源于驾驶人的有效信息感知不充分或感知判断失误;宏观层面提高交通规则违反者策略（RVS）的风险水平,将使驾驶人逐步趋向于遵守交通规则从而达到系统行为的一致或同步;limt→＋∞x（t）=1作为一个演化稳定策略,意味着提高RVS行为风险的同时,有必要进一步审视交通规则本身的合理性及其是否为驾驶人所熟知与适应;交通情境危险感知、交通规则的认知与遵从水平是驾驶人因素导致道路交通安全系统失衡的主要原因。

英文摘要：

In order to analyze the causes of drivers for the instability of road traffic safety system,the driving behaviors under traffic rules were modeled and tested by experiment. With complexmulti-agent system modeling, evolutionary game analyzing and experiment testing integrated, thecauses of drivers for the instability of the system and the conditions for the stability of the systemwere analyzed. The results show that the instability of road traffic safety system on the microlevel is mainly resulted from the insufficient perception of effective information or the errors inperception judgment of drivers. On the macro level, raising the risk level of rule violationstrategy （RVS） will make the drivers tend to obey traffic rules, so the consistent road trafficsystem behavior can be achieved, limx（t）l is one of the evolutionary stable strategies, whichmeans when raising the risk level of rule violation strategy （RVS）, further investigations on therationality of traffic rules and whether traffic rules well known and adapted by drivers arenecessary. The hazard perception of traffic situations, the cognition of and compliance with trafficrules are the dominant causes of drivers for the instability of road traffic safety system.