中文摘要：

作为资本市场重要信息中介，分析师预测的信息含量一直倍受关注。以2001—2011年中国沪深两市A股上市公司为研究样本，探讨在降低公司股价崩盘风险方面，分析师预测所发挥的作用。研究发现，分析师盈余预测准确度越高，股价未来发生崩盘的风险越低，即两者之间呈现显著的负向影响关系；而且，这种关系在国有企业及上市时间较长的公司中更显著。这表明分析师的信息搜寻和处理活动能在一定程度上缓解特定性质的目标公司与投资者之间信息不对称，使股票价格中包含更多的公司基本面信息，降低公司股价未来的崩盘风险。从稳定股价的角度对证券分析师预测行为的重要性给予了肯定，对于政府监管当局规范分析师预测行为具有一定的启示。

英文摘要：

As an important information intermediary in capital market,information content of analyst forecast has been closely con- cerned.Using a sample of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shanzhen Stock Exchange of China for the period 2001-2011 ,this paper examines how the role of analyst impact stock price crash risk.The research results show that there would be lower stock price crash risk if analysts forecast the earnings more accurately, namely there is a negative correlation between analyst earnings forecast accuracy and stock price crash risk; Moreover, this relationship is more significant in state-owned enterprises and the companies that have been listed for a long time.This shows that analysts＇ information search and processing activities can partly alleviate the information asymmetry between the investors and the target company, make more fundamental information contained in the stock price, reduce the stock price crash risk in the future.Conclusions of this paper can help investors to recognize the importance of securities analysts forecast behavior, at the same time, the government regulatory authorities to take corresponding measures to regulate the behavior of analysts forecast.