中文摘要：

文章运用创新扩散模型，对我国“绿电”与“火电”未来各时点发电量进行了预测评估，并在此基础上对替代规模与替代进程进行了耦合分析。结果表明：2020—2050年，我国电力结构仍将以“火电”为主，“绿电”发电量不断增加，占比上呈“M”型；“绿电”的发展主要依赖于水电与核电，水电与核电的开发潜力较大，未来5a内将得到大力开发；目前风电产业已处于产业化发展阶段，风电市场基本趋于成熟，风力发电量也大体保持稳定。

英文摘要：

This article intends to predict and evaluate the power generation of ＂thermal power＂ and ＂green power＂ in each time point in basing on the theory of innovation diffusion, then substitution scale and the substitution process are subsequently analyzed. Results shows that ＂thermal power＂ is still the main driving force of China＇s power structure from 2020 to 2050, while the power generation of ＂green power＂ is on the rise, the proportion shows substantially ＂M＂ type; Then, ＂green power＂ is mainly depend on hydropower and nuclear power, and both of them have the greater development potential and will be vigorously developed over the next five years; At present, the wind power is currently in the stage of industrialization, wind market has become mature and wind capacity also has generally remained stable.