中文摘要：

本文在收集和建立季度GDP实时数据的基础上,利用区制转移模型对我国经济周期测定展开了实时数据分析,并深入讨论了GDP数据修正对经济周期阶段性测定的影响。研究结果表明：GDP数据修正引致我国经济周期阶段性测定发生了深刻的变化,使我国经济周期的测定在2005年第二季度至2006年第四季度间从低速增长改变为高速增长。而且,GDP数据修正对经济周期平均增长率的影响方向,与其是否影响经济周期阶段性具有相反关系,即当GDP数据修正不影响（影响）经济周期阶段性时,它对高、低平均增长率都具有同向（反向）影响。

英文摘要：

On the collection of real time data of China＇s quarterly GDP,this paper uses the regime-switching model to date business cycle in real time,and further discusses the effects of GDP data revision on business cycle phases and average economic growth rates.The results show that the GDP data revision causes the phases of business cycle to undergo profound changes,so that the regime of business cycle during the period 2005Q2 to 2006Q4 is changed from low growth to high growth.Moreover,we find that the change direction of GDP data revision to average growth rates is inversely correlated to whether the GDP data revision affects business cycle phases.That is,when the GDP data revision does not（or does） affect the phases of business cycle,it has the same（or opposite） direction of effects on high and low average growth rates.