中文摘要：

本文将新兴技术管理分为技术评估、技术研发和技术产品商业化三个阶段,建立了＂评-研-商＂阶段模型,并从企业内部研发和外部市场两方面对各阶段可能存在的风险因素进行了分析。针对传统的现金流折现法在评估新兴技术研发推广项目风险方面的不足,本文引用了实物期权方法中的盖斯克模型对新兴技术项目管理进行风险评估。

英文摘要：

This paper divides the management of emcrging technology into three stages, namely technology evaluation, technology R＆D and technology commercialization,and establishes an ＇evaluation research commercialization＂ model, and analyzes the risk factors existing likely in each stage irom two aapects of enterprisers internal R＆D and external market. And it discusses the flaws of traditional Discounted Cash Flow in evaluating the risk of emerging technology project, and uses Geske model origined from the real option theory to evaluate the risk of emerging technology pruject managemet.