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中文摘要：
本文对日本制造企业新产品开发（NPD）过程中模糊前端（FFE）创新成功的关键因素进行了大样本分析，开发并构建了FFE创新要素与NPD项目绩效之间的因果关系模型。根据513家日本制造企业NPD项目的调查数据，运用AMOS验证因果关系模型，我们得出两个重要结论：在FFE阶段，技术和市场的不确定性减少越多，NPD项目的效率越高；开发前项目初始规划强度越大，开发过程中市场和技术的不确定性就越少。而且相对服务企业而言，制造企业的管理层更容易做出对降低市场不确定性有重大影响的初始规划。
英文摘要：
Recently, increased attention has been paid to the Fuzzy Front End （FFE） of New Product Development （NPD）. This paper attempts to probe this unexplored area, drawing on data collected from Japanese manufacturing companies, it identifies certain activities in the FFE when managers start NPD executions. We firstly continue with a brief literature review, the second section lays out an analytical framework and hypothesis, and then we describe our research methodology and analysis. Finally, this paper discusses our conclusion, including managerial implications and suggestions for future research. In this paper, we report on the key factors for success with regard to the front end activities of NPD in Japanese companies. We develop and test a causal model of relationships among key variables relating to the front end factors and success. The causal model is tested with AMOS using information from 513 completed NPD projects from Japanese manufacturing firms. The results of this study are summarised as follows： First, the more in both market and technical uncertainties are reduced during the front end, the higher is the effectiveness of NPD projects. Second, the more intensively new projects are planned prior to the start of development, the more in terms of both market and technical uncertainties are reduced. Finally, in the industry goods firms, it is easy for managers to develop the initial planning, and it has a greater impact on reduction of market uncertainty compared to that of the consumer goods firms. In contrast, as it is very difficult for managers in consumer goods firms to develop an initial plan, managers involve several function members within their project team, and often bring in external resources to reduce market uncertainty. The results of this study provide more evidence to previous research regarding the strong positive effect of FFE activities on NPD success. The model presented has enabled us to enhance our understanding of the dynamics of the FFE. It provides several insights that will
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