本文以农业生产中污染性要素(化肥、农药和农用塑料薄膜)的投入为例,利用1997—2010年省际面板数据,运用简约式与结构式模型,实证分析农业经济增长对环境的影响。研究发现,化肥、农药投入与以人均收入表示的农业增长之间存在倒U型曲线关系,且农药投入与人均收入的关系受控制变量的影响较大;倒U型曲线转折点对应的收入水平大于地方及全国平均水平,意味着投入量将随着人均收入的增加而增加;农药、农膜投入与收入不平等正相关,与价格指数比负相关;经济结构变动对不同污染性投入的影响不同;农业增长对环境影响的规模效应、结构效应和技术效应均为正,三类污染性要素的投入量随着农业的增长而增加。
Taking polluting factors(fertilizer,pesticide and agricultural plastic films) applied in agricultural production as example,this paper uses provincial panel data from 1997 to 2010 and applies reduced and structural form model to study the environmental impact of agricultural economic growth. The results show that inverted - U shaped curves exist between fertilizer and pesticide inputs and agricultural growth represented by per capita income, and controlled variables have greater impacts on the relationship between pesticide inputs and per capita income. The income level of the turning point is higher than the present local and total average level, which means that polluting inputs will increase with the rise of income. Pesticide and fertilizer inputs are positively correlated with income inequality and negatively correlated with the ratio of price indices. Economic structure change has different impacts on each polluting input. The scale, composition and technic effects of agriculture growth are positive, which means that the application of all polluting inputs will increase with agricultural growth.