为厘清中国地表水水环境容量计算方法演变历史,探讨计算方法发展趋势,在系统调研大量水环境容量研究文献基础上,详细梳理水环境容量从概念引入到研究至今的过程,归纳出中国地表水水环境容量研究过程中产生的五大类计算方法:公式法、模型试错法、系统最优化法(线性规划法和随机规划法)、概率稀释模型法和未确知数学法。解析了各类方法的基本思路、产生过程及应用进展,评述了各类方法的优缺点及适用范围。通过与国外水环境容量计算方法的比较,基于水环境系统复杂性及中国水资源管理特点与应用需求,认为中国应强化对概率稀释模型法、未确知数学法及随机规划法等3种方法的研究和改进。
The study aims to clarify the evolution of calculation methods of water environmental capacity of surface waters in China, and to discuss the development trend. Based on the systematic reviewing of previous relevant studies, the research history of water environmental capacity from the introduction of concept to current studies and then five calculation methods of water environmental capacity of surface waters in China were summarized as follows: Formula method, trial-and-error method, system optimization method (linear programming method and stochastic programming method), probabilistic dilution model method, and unascertained mathematical method. The basic theories, formation, and applications of the five calculation methods are analyzed. The scope of application, merits and drawbacks of each method are also commented. Taking into account of many factors including research trend, complexity of environmental issues and the demand for water resources management in China, it is suggested that the research in China should be focused on the development of the three methods: Probabilistic dilution model method, stochastic programming method and unascertained mathematical method.