中文摘要：

高速铁路牵引负荷谐波问题是电能质量评估的焦点,开展牵引负荷谐波建模与预测具有重要意义。通过对实测数据分析,计及负荷功率与谐波电流之间的相关性,建立了不同牵引功率区间内各次谐波电流的概率分布模型。通过引入非参数估计理论,克服了既有参数估计方法在谐波建模中的不足。提取新建铁路牵引负荷主要特征参数,构建了满足边界条件的样本集合,给出了以置信区间为约束的牵引负荷谐波预测评估算法。结合典型高速铁路算例分析,验证了上述牵引负荷谐波建模方法的有效性与预测精度,体现了较好的工程应用价值。

英文摘要：

High speed railway traction load harmonic problem is the focus for the power quality assessment, which means the traction load harmonic modeling and forecasting are essential for engineering application. In this paper, based on a large number of measured data of traction load, considering correlation between traction load and harmonic current generated, harmonic probability distribution is studied in different traction power sections. The non-parametric kernel density estimation is used in harmonic modeling, which can overcome the disadvantages of the existing parameter estimation methods. By extracting traction load characteristic parameters as boundary conditions, and the measured data are added to sample set, a harmonic prediction method based on confidence interval is proposed for power quality evaluation of new railway. Based on case studies, validity of the harmonic modeling and forecasting methods presented are verified, which illustrates better engineering application performance.