中文摘要：

根据螺栓法兰连接系统的模糊性、连接系统的主要故障及其失效原因,建立以连接系统泄漏失效为顶事件的故障树.依据模糊集理论,基于基本事件发生概率的三角模糊分布,对所建立的故障树进行了模糊分析.采用Fussel算法得到了顶事件的最小割集,求取了顶事件的模糊概率及不同置信水平下顶事件的隶属函数;将模糊重要度中值分析法引入螺栓法兰连接系统的故障树分析中,获得了顶事件最小λ截集水平下的各基本事件的模糊重要度,得到影响连接系统泄漏失效行为的重要因素,并给出相应的泄漏预防与控制策略.

英文摘要：

According to the fuzzy characteristics,the main faults and the failure causes of the bolted flanged connections,the leakage failure of the connections was considered to be the top event and a fault tree was constructed.The established fault tree was analyzed based on fuzzy set theory and each basic event was considered to be a triangular fuzzy number.The minimal cut set of the top event was obtained by using Fussel algorithm,and the fuzzy probability of the top event and its membership function at different confidence levels were obtained.The Median method for analyzing fuzzy importance was introduced into the fault tree analysis of bolted flanged connections and the fuzzy importance of each basic event was calculated at the minimal λ-cut set level of the top event.The factors with a great effect on the leakage behavior of the connections were obtained and the corresponding measures for preventing and controlling the leakage of the connections were given.