中文摘要：

准确预测或预报地磁暴在电网中产生的地磁感应电流（geomagnetically induced current,GIC）,对在电力系统调度运行中采取措施防御地磁暴电网灾害具有重要的意义。以行星际太阳风参数和观测数据为基础,提出基于行星际太阳风信息和三维磁流体力学（magnetohydrodynamics,MHD）模型评估电离层电流体系的算法,电离层电流计算地磁扰动（geomagnetic disturbance,GMD）以及GMD计算电网GIC的算法,以对电网GIC进行预测。算例的计算结果表明,所提基于行星际太阳风、电离层电流、GMD因果链体系以及观测数据和计算数据预测电网GIC算法具有比较高的精度,能有效量化评估灾害性地磁暴事件的影响程度,满足电网灾害性事件的预测和预警的需要。

英文摘要：

To accurately predict and forecast geomagnetically induced current（GIC） in the power grid during a geomagnetic storm is of great significance to the operation and coordination of the power system in terms of disaster prevention when such geomagnetic storm happens. In this paper, we proposed a GIC forecasting method for power grid which is based on interplanetary solar wind parameters and the data observed, we proposed an algorithm to estimate ionospheric currents, using interplanetary solar wind information and the Magnetohydrodynamics（MHD） model. We then furthered the research by proposing an algorithm to calculate geomagnetic disturbance（GMD） from ionospheric currents, and eventually, an algorithm to calculate GIC in the power grid from GMD. The results of a testing case suggest that, this GIC forecasting method which is based on observed data and the framework of the chain reaction（interplanetary solar wind, ionospheric currents, GMD, GIC）, has a high level of precision that can effectively quantify the impact of disastrous geomagnetic storm so as to meet the demand of disaster prediction and precaution for the power grid.