中文摘要：

针对传统风险事件异常防治措施决策方法的不足，借助Dempster-Sharer理论，建立了一个基于风险效益理论的决策模型．该模型首先对前期类似工程资料和风险事件现状进行统计分析，确定不同决策下风险事件后期需补救的概率及费用；再结合决策者的风险厌恶程度，确定风险事件后期发生异常的综合概率；比较不同措施组合下的的风险效益，将效益最大的方案作为最优决策方案，并借助灵敏度分析方法，对决策结论的可靠度进行评价．最后以佛山“一环”减少工后沉降的措施决策为例，演示了该模型的使用过程，验证了模型的实用性．

英文摘要：

In order to remedy the shortcoming of the traditional decision-making method for prevention measures of risk event unconventionality, a decision-making model based on risk benefit theory is established with the help of Dempster-shafer theory. In this model, similar prophase projects information and risk events are statistically analyzed, and the remedy probability and cost for different decisions are determined. Then, according to decisionmaker＇s risk preference, the comprehensive probability of latter unconventionality of risk events is determined. Moreover, the risk benefits of different measures are compared, and an optimal decision with maximum benefit is obtained, the reliability of which is evaluated by means of sensitivity analysis. The process and feasibility of the proposed model is finally demonstrated by the example of reducing latter settlement in Foshan First-Ring Road.