中文摘要：

In order to realize the aircraft trajectory prediction,a modified interacting multiple model(M-IMM) algorithm is proposed,which is based on the performance analysis of the standard interacting multiple model(IMM) algorithm.In the proposed M-IMM algorithm,a new likelihood function is defined for the sake of updating flight mode probabilities,in which the influences of interacting to residual’s mean error are taken into account and the assumption of likelihood function being a zero mean Gaussian function is discarded.Finally,the proposed M-IMM algorithm is applied to the simulation of the aircraft trajectory prediction,and the comparative studies are conducted to existing algorithms.The simulation results indicate the proposed M-IMM algorithm can predict aircraft trajectory more quickly and accurately.

英文摘要：

In order to realize the aircraft trajectory prediction,a modified interacting multiple model（M-IMM） algorithm is proposed,which is based on the performance analysis of the standard interacting multiple model（IMM） algorithm.In the proposed M-IMM algorithm,a new likelihood function is defined for the sake of updating flight mode probabilities,in which the influences of interacting to residual＇s mean error are taken into account and the assumption of likelihood function being a zero mean Gaussian function is discarded.Finally,the proposed M-IMM algorithm is applied to the simulation of the aircraft trajectory prediction,and the comparative studies are conducted to existing algorithms.The simulation results indicate the proposed M-IMM algorithm can predict aircraft trajectory more quickly and accurately.