利用《广东省企业用工情况调查》数据和区间回归模型,文章考察了中国农民工汇款的关键影响因素及汇款动机。结果表明:迁移目标是农民工汇款量的核心决定因素,有回流意愿农民工的汇款要明显高于没有回流意愿的农民工;工资、当地工作时间和当地生活成本是影响农民工汇款的关键因素,工资越高,当地工作时间越久,农民工汇款量越高,但随着当地生活成本的上升,农民工汇款量受到较大的削弱;社会保险尚未成为农民工汇款决策的考虑因素,外出务工距离对有回流意愿农民工的汇款行为有一定影响。
The data from a Labors Survey of Enterprises in Guangdong Province in 2005 are analyzed by interval regression model to explore the key factors affecting the rural labor's remittance to home and the motives of their remittance. The results shows that the core determinant affecting the rural labor's remittance is the migration aim, the rural labor's intention to return home also has affected the remittance; Wages, duration of stay in Guangdong, living expenses also have great impact on the rural labor's remittance Significantly, to be more specifically, the higher wages and the longer stay in Guangdong, the larger they remit home, and the distance to home has a slight impact on the rural labor's remittance too. However the rising living expenses in Guangdong has impaired their remittance to home greatly. There is no evidence showing that social security has significant impact on the rural labor's remittance yet.