中文摘要：

利用国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式（BCC_CM1.0）嵌套区域气候模式RegCM3进行了近10年（1998-2007年）夏季回报及2010年华东夏季实时业务预报。从10年回报的模拟平均状况来看,模式基本能反映出中国东部夏季的平均状况,模式回报的夏季气温分布与实况较为相似,但回报的夏季降水量分布形态与实况有一定差异。使用国家气候中心六级Ps评分及简化的Ps评分对模式10年回报进行了评估。结果表明,该模式对华东地区夏季气温和降水有一定的跨季度预报能力,温度和降水10年平均Ps评分分别为69.9和60.9;对华东地区南部的气温及其东南部的降水有较好的回报效果。利用该模式进行了2010年夏季实时业务预报,预报检验表明,模式预报的2010年夏季温度距平和降水距平百分率分布与实况较为一致,夏季温度和降水的Ps评分分别为71.4和55.3;对影响较为严重的气候事件如江西降水极端偏多等也进行了准确预报。

英文摘要：

Using the regional climate model（RegCM3）nested global atmosphere ocean coupled model（BCC_CM1.0）,two numerical simulation experiments give a forecast of summer average temperature and precipitation in the Eastern China.The 10-year hindcast experiments（1998-2007）gave a similar pattern of average temperature to observation,but the precipitation model was very different.The results by using Ps score and the simplified Ps are examined,and the Ps scores are 69.9and 60.9for the seasonal average temperature and precipitation,respectively,which suggest that RegCM3has some capabilities in predicting the major seasonal average temperature and rain belt,especially in the middle-south of the Eastern China for temperature and in east-south part for precipitation.Patterns of temperature anomaly and percentage of total precipitation anomaly are close to the observation in the real-time seasonal forecast in summer of 2010and the scores are 71.4and 55.3.Fortunately,RegCM3can reproduce some major climate events such as the extreme precipitation in Jiangxi Province.