中文摘要：

借助传统的生态足迹方法,以＂国家公顷＂为计量单位,运用＂中国平均生态生产力＂对单产因子和产量因子进行调整,引用＂中国平均均衡因子＂,提出＂中国标准＂的生态足迹新方法,构建了区域耕地资源可持续利用的评价模型。在此基础上,运用灰色系统预测GM（1,1）模型分别建立了云南省人均耕地生态足迹和人均耕地生态承载力的预测模型,残差检验与误差检验结果满足模型精度要求,以此对云南省耕地资源利用的可持续状态进行预测。结果表明：①1998年-2009年,云南省人均耕地生态足迹和人均耕地生态承载力均呈波动上升态势,耕地资源利用总体上呈现弱不可持续状态;②在人口增长、经济发展、自然灾害和土地利用方式等不出现明显＂突变＂的前提下,2010年-2015年,云南省人均耕地生态足迹和人均耕地生态承载力将呈稳步增长趋势,区域耕地资源利用的可持续程度将进一步增强,但这种增强只是从弱不可持续状态向弱可持续状态逐渐逼近,并没有达到中等可持续状态或强可持续状态。保住耕地面积＂红线＂和对山区耕地资源进行整理、技术改造是提高耕地生产能力,实现云南省耕地资源可持续利用的良策。

英文摘要：

As an important natural resource for regional development, arable land resources and their sustainable use have been receiving much attention. In particular, a typical mountainous province, e.g., Yunnan Province, should pay attention to the sustainable use of mountain arable land resources. To clarify the sustainability and evolution characteristics of arable land resources use in Yunnan Province in recent years, we used traditional methods of ecological footprint and took ＂National Hectare＂ as the measurement unit. In the model, the average productivity factor and yield factor are adjusted using China’s average ecological productivity. The model involves the China’s average equivalence factor. A new method of measuring ecological footprint based on ＂China’s Standard＂ was subsequently proposed, with constructing an evaluation model of sustainable arable land resources use. We subsequently built a prediction model of the per capita ecological footprint and the capacity of arable land in Yunnan based on a gray system GM （1, 1） model. Results show that： 1） the per capita ecological footprint and the capacity of arable land generally fluctuated during the period 1998-2009. The arable land use generally showed an unsustainable state; and 2） population growth, economic development, natural disasters, and arable land use patterns will not substantially change the assumptions in the developed model. The per capita ecological footprint and the capacity of arable land are expected to exhibit a steady growing trend from 2010 to 2015, and the sustainable use of cultivated land resources will therefore be further enhanced. However, the increase does not seem sustainable. There is no sustainable status or moderately strong sustainable status. Overall, during the recent 12 years, the degree of sustainable use of arable land resources increases progressively in Yunnan Province, and it will be further improved trends in the future. In general, the arable land resources use efficiency is still at a low leve